Tonight in FACEIT we have four games which will be important for determining who will take part in the offline FACEIT League finals later this year. A top five finish is required to get to the LAN finals.
For whatever reason Virtus Pro have needed to reschedule the vast majority of their games so they’re playing catch-up, having only played four games (compared to others who’ve played up to 14!). This means Virtus Pro feature heavily in tonight’s fixtures.
As it stands the top five, with their respective points tallies, are EnVyUs (27), TSM (27), Fnatic (18), G2 (15) and NiP (15). The top two are all but confirmed, which means Fnatic, G2, NiP, Hellraisers and Virtus Pro are playing for the remaining three slots.
Virtus Pro (8/11 Skybet) v G2 (Evens bet365)
A match between the CEVO Champions in Virtus Pro and Dreamhack Cluj semi-finalists Gamers2. As the betting suggests this is difficult to call, and, it really, really is. The last three times these teams have met on de_train we’ve seen scores of 16-14 and 19-17 in favour of G2, and 21-17 in favour of Virtus Pro. You couldn’t get closer than that. We literally cannot split them and there is no handicap betting (which would have been the play we’d have looked to make). If there was a gun to our head we’d suggest backing G2 purely because they’re a bigger price in a match between two even teams and they just edge it with their previous form in this exact match-up.
G2 to win with bet365 at evens (2.00)
Virtus Pro (1/2 Bet365) v NiP (6/4 William Hill)
On paper you’d automatically side with VP right? Well, you’d be making a wise choice. If this was on Train we’d give NiP a chance seeing as they beat them recently on it. Virtus Pro, off the back of their CEVO rout will be looking to breeze through this game to accumulate more important points in the league. The last time these two met on Mirage we saw a 16-7 win for VP. Expect “yolo” plays from NiP as their year comes to a close. They can still qualify for the finals but they’d need to hope for some seriously bad results from VP to give them a fighting chance. That’s not going to happen and we foresee a convincing VP victory.
Virtus Pro -4.5 rounds with Skybet at 5/6 (1.83)
Virtus Pro (2/1 William Hill) v EnVyUs (2/5 bet365)
Now things get even trickier for the Poles. EnVyUs have cruised their way through the league and have all but qualified. KennyS cannot play tonight so they have a stand-in from LDLC, YouYou. This will hurt their chemistry but they remain the team with probably the best individual ability. Also in favour of the Frenchmen is that the last time EnVy played VP it was a one sided affair, finishing 16-7. If Virtus Pro have managed to defeat G2 and given NiP a spanking as expected, we think there’s a chance that their momentum continues against the boys in blue. As mentioned, EnVy have nothing to play for and VP the opposite. The concern is that come up short against the very best opposition online on many occasions. At the prices, betting on VP in this fixture is the smart choice given that EnVy aren’t even playing with their full line-up.
Virtus Pro to win with William Hill at 2/1
NiP (9/4 bet365) vs Fnatic (2/5 32Red)
I’m going to give NiP some credit here: they’ve been reasonable on de_train recently. They beat Dignitas on it 16-4 in the ESEA Pro League. Most memorably they beat TSM 16-10 on it at Dreamhack Cluj. Fnatic have recently lost both 16-6 to EnVyUs and 16-10 to Titan on the map. Now, this game has big implications for both teams. If the ninjas win their earlier match against VP this will become an even bigger fixture as it will help them in their quest to finish top five, which will become more attainable. The issue for NiP is that a win for Fnatic will all but cement themselves into a top five position. One of these teams is going to be disappointed tonight.
Fnatic yesterday bought in Dennis as a replacement for pronax, so they’ll be playing with a new player. Dennis does add more fragging power to the side which was something where pronax fell short, but the shift will see Fnatic play with a new in-game leader. That said, NiP are reportedly on their last legs as a team and are just seeing out their fixtures before the inevitable roster shuffles kick off over Christmas. Nine times out of ten we’d be suggesting Fnatic but with their roster changes and their recent slump in form, we think that the attractive odds on NiP to slug their way to a handicap victory are worth taking. You can get 5/6 with Skybet on NiP +5.5 rounds. This means they start with 5.5 rounds. So if they lose 16-11 or better, the handicap kicks in and we win. As with the handicap they’d have 16.5 rounds, making the bet a winner!
If you’re feeling brave you can get 2/1 on NiP to win outright, but we’re going to play it safe as we can see Fnatic edging a close game.
NiP +5.5 rounds with Skybet at 5/6 (1.83)