It’s semi final time at ELEAGUE in Seattle, so we present you our CSGO betting tips for the TBS televised match.
A coin toss will decide who has to ban first and a knife round is used to determine starting sides on each map. Both factors are important to note for the sake of the veto and map handicap betting.
Mousesports (9/5, 2.80 Ladbrokes) vs Virtus Pro (4/9, 1.44 Betway)
The weaker of the two semi finals is arguably the more interesting of the two. Both sides are incredibly inconsistent, and undoubtedly key to this match will be the performance of NiKo. The young Bosnian, who many consider to be the best player in the world, will have to carry his weaker teammates through the match against a VP lineup which sets a higher bar, but lacks any real star power. Snax might like to argue otherwise, but his recent performances have lacked any sort of consistency. Such consistency is required for him to take up that mantle.
The first map pick for this match should be reasonably straightforward. Mousesports have been frequently banning Nuke, and when the two sides met at the major, VP were happy to leave it open. In that match VP banned Cache then Dust2. We expect a repeat of that Cache ban, leaving Mousesports free to pick Dust2. VP’s Cache has been very poor, losing to EnVyUs twice at ELEAGUE, to go with losses to a host of tier one and tier two teams, including Mousesports, during 2016. Whilst Mouz are arguably better on Dust2, VP defeated NiP 16-8 on it last week so should fancy their chances more so than on Cache.
Mousesports’ ban is more interesting. Whilst VP have been playing Nuke, they have lost on it twice, to SK and Gambit. If Mousesports expect VP to pick it, they will need to ban it. However, they have a tendency to remove their opponent’s stronger maps when they don’t expect them to pick a map they are particularly weak on. This was seen by their Mirage ban against FaZe, where they left in both Nuke and Overpass. If repeating such a strategy, they may veto Cobblestone. VP is probably the best team in the world on Cobble taking into account their performances against SK and Team Liquid at the major. Mousesports have also been poor on the map, though they play it more than Overpass. VP rarely remove Overpass and may be tempted to pick it here. They’re less likely to pick Nuke because they have been banning it more frequently after their two defeats.
This could go either way: the smart move from Mousesports would be to veto Cobblestone. Then, VP’s pick is not blindingly obvious. There is a risk that VP have been playing Overpass, or indeed Nuke, and slaughter them on it, but they could also bait a Mirage pick. Many claim that VP’s favourite map is Mirage, but their performances on the map do not suggest that they are a class above on it. Whilst Mousesports are very inconsistent on it, a peak performance would give them a good chance of an upset.
This would then lead to Mousesports removing Nuke, and VP choosing for the decider to be played on Train. They would pick this rather than Overpass, as they defeated Mouz 16-10 on Train at the major. There’d be no reason to expect a different result this time around.
A map pool of Dust2, Mirage and Train would give Mousesports the best chance in this match. ChrisJ comes alive on Dust2 and in the grand scheme of things, VP’s wins against Gambit and NiP may not mean too much. They play it so infrequently that their match last week will have given Mouz a perfect insight into how they play the map. VP’s chance would come if they can find a way to exploit Spidii, who struggles here.
As previously outlined, Mirage would likely depend on which Mousesports turns up. VP would be favoured on Train thanks to their 16-10 win at the major and general better form on the map. In that match, each side took one pistol round. It’s again a map where there seems to be two different Mousesports’ lineups that play it – even if they are on form, VP are still favoured.
On the other hand, if Mousesports do not remove Cobble, VP will pick it and have a free win on the map. They picked it against NiP and won comfortably, taking 6 rounds on CT before winning 10-0 on the terrorist side. Generally, Mousesports’ CT is not that bad but their T side is very weak. That isn’t a good sign for the Germans, given that VP’s CT is solid against the very best teams, and their T side is impeccable.
The same scenario occurs if VP don’t pick Mirage, and then remove it themselves in the latter ban phase. This would suggest they are very confident on either Overpass or Nuke, two terrible maps for Mousesports, and where VP should cover the -3.5 handicap, let alone win.
The big question mark is around Nuke. If Mousesports have been playing it, it could perhaps be their fifth best map above Overpass and Cobble, or could be their worst. It’s likely VP’s second weakest map, so if either side picks it, you’d have to assume they expect to have a big advantage on it.
There are few scenarios where map 3 is a favourable map for Mousesports so backing VP to win and on the handicap is the best bet until we see the map vetos. If Cobble comes up, back VP on the -3.5 or -4.5 handicap at any prices down to 1.70. On Dust2, Mousesports should be favourites.
Recommended Bet:
VP to win map 3 with 138 at 10/17 (1.58)
VP -2.5 rounds on map 3 with Ladbrokes at 4/5 (1.80)
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